Monsoon progressing normally, to hit Kerala in the next 5 days, above-normal rainfall in the country except a few regions
Monsoon progressing normally, above-normal monsoon expected except a few regions in the country.
As the monsoon season approaches, a comprehensive update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates promising rainfall patterns for various regions across the country. Noted weather scientist Vineet Kumar highlights that above-normal rainfall is anticipated in most parts of Maharashtra and South India in June, while North India is expected to experience below-normal rainfall.
IMD Predictions for Monsoon 2024
The IMD projects that the monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%. This suggests that the monsoon season, spanning from June to September 2024, is expected to bring above-normal rainfall across India.
Regional Rainfall Predictions:
- Central India and South Peninsular India: Above normal rainfall is expected, exceeding 106% of the LPA.
- Northwest India: Rainfall is projected to be normal, ranging between 92-108% of the LPA.
- Northeast India: Below normal rainfall is likely, with expectations falling below 94% of the LPA.
- Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ): This region, comprising most of the rainfed agricultural areas, is likely to receive above-normal rainfall, greater than 106% of the LPA.
Factors Influencing the Monsoon
Both the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral condition and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to support a favorable monsoon season. These climatic conditions play a crucial role in enhancing the overall monsoon performance across the Indian subcontinent.
Detailed Regional Forecasts
- Northern Limit of Monsoon: Currently, the monsoon limit passes through 05°N/60°E, 06°N/70°E, 07°N/75°E, 08°N/80°E, 13°N/84.5°E, 16°N/87.5°E, 18.5°N/90°E, 21°N/92.5°E., indicating its gradual progress across the region.
- Monsoon Onset Over Kerala: The conditions are likely to become favorable for the onset of the monsoon over Kerala within the next five days.
- Advance of Southwest Monsoon: Further advancement of the monsoon is expected over parts of South Arabian Sea, remaining areas of Maldives and Comorin, Lakshadweep, Kerala, and the Northeastern states.
Specific Weather Events
From May 28th to June 1st, widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) is predicted over:
- Kerala & Mahe
- Lakshadweep
- Andaman & Nicobar Islands
- Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim
Isolated Heavy Rainfall:
- Likely over Kerala & Mahe from May 28th to 31st.
- Over Lakshadweep on May 29th.
- Over Andaman & Nicobar Islands from May 28th to June 1st.
Light Rainfall with Thunderstorm and Gusty Winds:
- Expected over Uttarakhand from May 28th to June 1st.
- Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, and Himachal Pradesh on May 30th and 31st.
Strong Surface Winds:
- Predicted over Gujarat State on May 28th, with speeds ranging between 25-35 kmph.
Conclusion
The Monsoon Update indicates a generally positive outlook for the upcoming season, with significant rainfall expected in key agricultural regions. This promising forecast is essential for farmers and stakeholders across various sectors, ensuring adequate water supply and support for crops during the critical growing period.
Stay tuned for further updates and detailed forecasts as the monsoon progresses.
