Maharashtra Braces for Above-Normal Monsoon Rainfall; Pune to See Heat Spike This Week
Pune | April 16, 2025 — The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a positive outlook for the upcoming Southwest Monsoon, forecasting above-normal rainfall across most of the country, including significant portions of Maharashtra. According to the IMD’s Long Range Forecast (LRF) released on Tuesday, monsoon rains from June to September are expected to be around 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a margin of error of ±5%.
Marathwada, Vidarbha Among Key Rainfall Zones
The IMD’s color-coded forecast map indicates that regions like Marathwada, southern Maharashtra, and Vidarbha are likely to witness excess rainfall, marked in dark blue. The rest of Maharashtra is expected to receive above-normal rainfall, represented in light blue. This is welcome news for the agricultural sector, especially for kharif crop growers across the state.
Officials emphasized that this forecast is part of the broader, national-level outlook, with region-specific updates due in the end-of-May bulletin. However, early indicators point to a favorable season for Maharashtra’s farmers, with hopes of improved crop yields and better groundwater recharge.
Pune Heatwave Alert: Temperatures to Soar Past 40°C
While the monsoon forecast brings optimism, short-term weather in parts of Maharashtra, particularly Pune, will offer no such respite. Starting April 16, temperatures across the state are expected to climb steadily, with isolated heatwave conditions likely in northeast Maharashtra.
In Pune, daytime temperatures have already breached the 40°C mark in recent days. IMD warns that this heat surge may persist for the next 3–4 days, with little to no rainfall expected during this period. The possibility of thunderstorm or lightning activity remains isolated and limited to pockets in eastern Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Northeast India.
“Pune will see a further rise in temperature this week, and the chances of rain are slim,” said a senior meteorologist from IMD Pune. “People should take necessary precautions against heat-related health issues.”
Climatic Conditions Behind the Forecast
Meteorologists attribute the upcoming strong monsoon to neutral ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which are expected to prevail through the monsoon season. Interestingly, while the ENSO remains neutral, atmospheric patterns are beginning to resemble those typically seen during La Niña years, which are often linked to stronger Indian monsoons.
Additionally, below-normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia earlier this year is another factor that supports the projection of a vigorous monsoon.
What Lies Ahead
Experts caution that while this long-range forecast offers a hopeful outlook, short-term and localized forecasts remain critical for on-ground planning and responses—especially for farmers, local authorities, and residents dealing with daily weather extremes.
“This is a season-scale forecast aimed at helping policy planning,” noted Dr. S.D. Sanap from IMD Pune. “The real challenge lies in managing the variability within these 120 days of monsoon. We urge the public to stay tuned for short-range updates, especially in light of the heat conditions expected over the next few days.”
As Maharashtra gears up for a potentially rain-rich monsoon season, the immediate focus remains on battling the scorching summer heat, particularly in urban centers like Pune, which are already feeling the brunt of rising mercury.
